by Iluobe Igho, Crypto Market Analyst
As we celebrate Christmas in 2025, bitcoin continues to serve as the primary barometer for the digital asset ecosystem. To understand where we are going, we must first examine the empirical data of where we have been. Over the last decade, Bitcoin price on December 25th has mirrored its broader four-year halving cycles, shifting from a niche experiment to a cornerstone of institutional finance.
Below is the historical data of bitcoin price on Christmas Day over the last 10 years, followed by an analysis of the emerging patterns and a forward-looking projection.
The 10-Year Christmas Price History (USD)
| Year | Christmas Day Price (Approx.) | Cycle Phase |
| 2016 | $900 | Halving Year |
| 2017 | $14,000 | Post-Halving Bull Peak |
| 2018 | $3,800 | Bear Market Bottom |
| 2019 | $7,200 | Accumulation / Recovery |
| 2020 | $24,500 | Halving Year |
| 2021 | $50,800 | Post-Halving Bull Peak |
| 2022 | $16,800 | Bear Market Bottom |
| 2023 | $43,000 | Accumulation / Recovery |
| 2024 | $98,000 | Halving Year |
| 2025 | $87,500 | Post-Halving Consolidation |
Read also: Bitcoin dips from $125k high but majority of holders still in profit
Analytical Identification of Patterns
When analyzing this decade of data, three distinct patterns emerge that transcend seasonal “Santa Claus Rally” narratives:
1. The Halving Rhythm
The most consistent driver of bitcoin’s value remains the Bitcoin Halving—the 50% reduction in new supply issuance. Historically, Christmas prices in halving years (2016, 2020, 2024) have shown strong upward momentum.
- 2016 ($900) to 2020 ($24,500): A ~2,600% increase.
- 2020 ($24,500) to 2024 ($98,000): A ~300% increase.
While the percentage gains are diminishing as the market matures (a sign of “logarithmic decay”), the absolute value trajectory remains positive.
2. The Post-Peak Correction
In the years immediately following a major bull run (2018, 2022), Christmas has historically been a time of Crypto Winter. These years saw retracements of 70% to 80% from their all-time highs. Today, in 2025, the price of $87,500 reflects a healthy consolidation after the massive institutional-led rally of late 2024. Unlike previous bear cycles, the floor appears higher due to the presence of Spot ETFs and corporate treasury holdings.
3. Diminishing Volatility & Institutional Floor
The delta between the 2018 bottom ($3,800) and the 2022 bottom ($16,800) shows a rising “support floor.” As bitcoin integrates with traditional finance, the wild 10x swings are being replaced by more calculated, macro-driven movements.
Read also: Bitcoin ETF outflows signal a major shift in market sentiment.
Looking Forward: 2026 and the Next Decade
The Immediate Future: 2026
If historical patterns hold, 2026 may be a year of correction or sideways movement. Traditionally, the second year after a halving is the “cool-down” period. But 2026 will be the first such year where bitcoin exists as a standard asset in pension funds and institutional portfolios. We should expect a less severe “winter” than in 2018 or 2022, likely establishing a new long-term support zone.
The 10-Year Horizon: Christmas 2035
By December 25, 2035, bitcoin will have undergone two more halving events (2028 and 2032). By this stage:
- Supply Scarcity: Over 99% of all bitcoins will have been mined.
- Sovereign Adoption: It is statistically probable that bitcoin will be a standard reserve asset for multiple nation-states, shifting its role from “digital gold” to a foundational layer of the global settlement system.
- Price Dynamics: If the trend of higher lows continues, the volatility that enthusiasts experience today will likely have stabilized into a steady, low-digit annual appreciation, similar to high-value commodities.
Based on the historical cycles and technical structural shifts analyzed above, we can synthesize a price prediction for the next decade.
This forecast is not a crystal ball—and this is no financial advice—but an empirical projection based on logarithmic regression (the historical slowing of percentage gains) and the Scarcity-to-Flow ratio.
The Christmas Projection (2026 – 2035)
| Horizon | Projected Price Range (USD) | Primary Catalyst |
| Christmas 2026 | $120,000–$170,000 | Full absorption of the 2024 Halving supply shock and institutional “buy-and-hold” ETF dominance. |
| Christmas 2030 | $350,000–$550,000 | Post-2028 Halving. Bitcoin reaches ~1/3 the market cap of Gold; potential use as a partial reserve for sovereign nations. |
| Christmas 2035 | $1,000,000–$1,400,000 | Post-2032 Halving. 99% of supply is mined. Institutional “Hyper-bitcoinization” where it serves as a global collateral layer. |
Supporting Rationale for this Prediction
1. The Law of Diminishing Returns
While early adopters saw 1,000x gains, the math of larger market caps dictates that future multiples will be smaller.
- From 2016 to 2020, bitcoin grew roughly 27x.
- From 2020 to 2024, it grew roughly 4x.
- The Projection: My forecast assumes a steady decline in these multiples, moving toward a 2x–3x growth rate per cycle as the asset matures.
2. The “ETF Floor” Effect
In previous decades (2014–2022), bitcoin was highly susceptible to “retail panic,” leading to 80% crashes. In the 2026–2035 era, we expect asymmetric volatility. Massive institutional sell-offs are less likely because ETFs and corporate treasuries (like MicroStrategy or sovereign wealth funds) operate on multi-year or multi-decade horizons. This effectively “shortens” the bear markets and “stabilizes” the support levels.
3. Scarcity as a Mathematical Certainty
By 2035, the “Flow” (newly minted bitcoin) will be negligible. If demand merely remains constant while supply issuance effectively drops to near-zero, the basic economic principle of Scarcity vs. Demand dictates a significant upward price adjustment. The $1M+ target represents bitcoin capturing a significant portion of the global store-of-value market currently held by gold and real estate.
A Note on Risk
These projections assume the continued integrity of the Bitcoin network and a stable global regulatory environment. As most things in life, variables never remain the same, and all things are never equal. Significant “Black Swan” events—such as a critical flaw in the SHA-256 algorithm or a global ban on internet-based value transfer—would invalidate these models.
Conclusion
The 10-year history of bitcoin on Christmas Day is a story of resilience. Despite multiple “deaths” declared by critics in 2018 and 2022, the asset has consistently achieved higher valuations every four years. For the enthusiast, the data suggests that while the “Santa Rally” is a pleasant holiday phenomenon, the real gift of bitcoin is its programmed scarcity and the inexorable march of its four-year cycles. No financial advice.
Read also: From pizza to powerhouse: Bitcoin marks 15 years with record highs and $300k bets.
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