Is altcoin season really dead, or just warming up for 2026?

by Victor Solomon

For months, the crypto market has looked like a battlefield. Prices have swung from highs to sudden drops, investors have panicked and recovered, and analysts have argued endlessly about one big question. Is the altcoin season cancelled forever? Or is the market preparing for something bigger in 2026? As strange as it sounds, many signs suggest the bull run traders expected may simply be delayed, not extinguished.

Across the market, we are starting to see early signs of recovery. These recoveries raise an important question. Are these early sparks pointing to what is coming? Or are they just temporary excitement?

For answers, we need to look at the wider picture. Market liquidity, shifting institutional flows, global rate decisions, and the behavior of large investors are all creating a story. And that story suggests that while altcoin season may not have arrived on time, it is far from gone.

Why altcoin season did not arrive on time

Popular analyst CryptosRus captured the sentiment in a single phrase that has been circulating across X. He said altcoin season was not cancelled; it was only postponed. Thousands of traders expected the market to follow the familiar pattern of previous cycles. Bitcoin (BTC) rallies; ether (ETH) rises, then the rest of the altcoins explode. It happened in 2017. It happened in 2021. But in 2025, the music stopped too soon.

According to CryptosRus, the problem was not weak fundamentals or a loss of interest in altcoins. The problem was liquidity. Global conditions have been tight for months. Central banks reduced the amount of money flowing into markets and quantitative tightening made it harder for capital to move into smaller riskier assets. This is why money never fully rotated down the chain the way it usually does. In previous cycles, loose liquidity created a flood of capital for altcoins. In this cycle, the river dried before the rotation completed.

But that may soon change. Many analysts expect quantitative tightening to end very soon. Some even predict a possible rate cut in December. When global liquidity improves, capital can move freely again. And when that happens, the altcoin rotation that investors have been waiting for could ignite in ways that resemble 2017 and 2021.

Historical charts show that the ETH and BTC pair tends to fall sharply before altcoin season starts. This exact trend appeared in early 2017 and again in mid 2021. Each time, ethereum led a massive rally that dragged the entire altcoin market upward. The same pattern is happening at this very moment. Ethereum has declined heavily against bitcoin. According to CryptosRus, this is the early stage that always appears before the real breakout.

A strange post halving cycle

The concern among long term holders is understandable. The year after a bitcoin halving has always been extremely bullish. The years 2013, 2017, and 2021 all produced record breaking rallies and unforgettable altcoin seasons. But 2025 has not delivered anything close to those results. BTC, ETH, and BNB reached new highs, but the rest of the market has been unusually quiet. For many investors, this is a serious break in the historical pattern.

Does this mean the four-year cycle is dead? Some analysts say yes. Others say that the cycle is simply shifting because macro conditions this time were more difficult than previous cycles. Stocks, gold, and commodities are performing extremely well in 2025. With so many attractive opportunities in traditional markets, crypto did not receive the concentrated liquidity it needed to replicate its usual explosive behavior.

Still, the story is not over. If liquidity improves in 2026 and risk appetite returns, the altcoin market may experience its delayed breakout. Even if the traditional four-year pattern weakens, the overall trend of liquidity driven cycles remains the same.

What the market is telling us now

Recent data shows the market is entering an interesting recovery phase.

In the last 24 hours, BTC climbed 8% to reclaim the $93,000 level. Ethereum broke above $3,000. BNB moved $900. Meanwhile, altcoins like SUI surged by 30%, PENGU gained 26%, and HYPE added 10%. Fear and Greed Index numbers also show that the market is slowly getting more confident. The index rose from extreme fear to a mild fear level of 28.

Liquidations have slowed significantly. Only $482 million were liquidated in the last 24 hours, down almost 2% from the previous day. Open interest has risen by 7% to $134 billion, showing that investors are returning to the market.

Institutional activity is also increasing. Bitcoin ETFs recorded fifty eight $58 million dollars in inflows on December second. Ethereum gained $10 million on the same day. Some firms like BitMine Immersion Technologies bought more than $100 million worth of ETH during the downturn. This is a sign that large investors are positioning themselves for another rally.

A potential Federal Reserve rate cut is another driver. Polymarket odds for a rate cut in mid December jumped to ninety percent from under fifty percent a few weeks ago. Lower interest rates usually increase the flow of money into risk assets. Even Vanguard, one of the most traditional financial institutions in the world, has started offering crypto ETFs and mutual funds to its fifty million clients. This will create a new wave of demand in the coming months.

Ethereum, Solana, and the Race for Momentum

Ethereum is also preparing for a major upgrade known as Fusaka, which will bring faster transaction speeds, lower fees, and better integration with layer 2 networks. This upgrade is expected to improve investor confidence and strengthen the foundation for future Ethereum driven altcoin seasons.

Solana has also started to recover. It reclaimed the $135 level and broke above a bearish trend on the hourly chart. Technical indicators are turning bullish. The MACD is gaining momentum and the RSI is above the fifty level. If Solana successfully breaks its nearby resistance, the next leg up could be strong. If not, it could retest support levels before attempting another breakout.

So, is altcoin season dead or alive?

The evidence suggests that altcoin season is not dead. It is simply waiting for the right conditions. Liquidity needs to improve. Institutional confidence needs to grow. And macro pressures need to soften. Once these factors align, the market could enter the rotation phase that usually pushes altcoins to new heights.

2026 may become the year investors have been waiting for since the last cycle. The buildup, the charts, the institutional flows, and the macro environment all point to a delayed ignition rather than a destroyed opportunity. Even if the traditional cycle pattern is fading, the behavior of liquidity driven markets remains consistent.

In the long run, bitcoin will continue to act as the foundation of the market. But altcoins are still positioned to benefit from innovation, speed, utility, and community driven demand. Hence, the race for altcoin dominance is far from over.

For now, patience may be the smartest strategy. The market is quiet, but beneath the surface, the next major rotation appears to be forming. And when liquidity returns, altcoin season could arrive with more energy than anyone expected.

Victor Solomon is a crypto analyst at Crypto Asset Buyer (CAB). Over the years, Victor has gained valuable expertise in market analysis, risk management, and community management within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The founder of Soluvic Crypto Hub, a crypto community where he equips newbies in the space, Victor’s mission is to empower individuals to uncover opportunities and safely navigate risks in the blockchain industry. Victor’s academic foundation includes a BSc. (Ed) in Mathematics, a credential that underpins his strong analytical and problem-solving abilities. Currently, he is expanding his technical expertise as a Software Development student at Brigham Young University. He is an Ex African Manager of Newscrypto.

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