If you are one of those wondering if it is time to sell that bitcoin and Ethereum in your wallets, you are not alone. And that is the first step to thinking right as a hodler or investor in the ever-volatile crypto market. You are not alone.
Now that you know that you are not alone (if you didn’t realize that before), the next important step is knowing where you are exactly.
“Getting your ass or fingers burnt by red candles on the chart”, you said? No.
“On a cliff about to jump”. Again, no. In fact, far from it.
When I say that you need to know where you are exactly, I mean that as a hodler or investor, you need to know or remind yourself of the season that we are in the crypto market. Crypto seasons come in cycles. We are currently in a bear season: the season of FUD—fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
So it is perfectly fine if you are afraid to buy. It is perfectly okay if you are uncertain. It is perfectly okay if you are in doubt.
“No brainer!”, you say?
Sure. But it is important that you know that, and continue to remind yourself. Seasons come and go. This is crypto winter. Until winter passes, no summer just yet. No bulls.
Now that you really know and appreciate better the season we are currently in, the third step is to know from where exactly the price values of bitcoin and Ethereum each time crypto winter comes and goes, eventually. This is known as cycles.
Understanding Past and Current Cycles
Speaking of cycles in crypto, Bobby Ong, Coingecko Co-Founder & COO, shared some stats on his Twitter page about previous market cycles. The stats show the cycle (years), the coins, the prices, and the percentage loss:
Bitcoin: $1,127 –> $200 (-82%)
Year: 2017–Bitcoin: $19,423 –> $3,217 (-83%)
Ethereum: $1,448 –> $85 (-94%)
Bitcoin: $67,167 –> $27,682 (-59%)
Ethereum: $4,815 –> $1,466 (-69%)
Meanwhile, at press time, bitcoin had fallen to about $23,680.
Booby agrees with Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder VC who formerly led ARK Invest, that the crypto market is probably near the bottom now.
But contrary to Chris’s take, Booby doesn’t think it means that “price can nuke 50% further”.
The Long-term investors
“If you are a long-term BTC/ETH holder, multi-year market gyrations won’t make any difference, so go spend quality time on yourself, family, and friends. Go for a jog, cycle, hike. Improve yourself technically and socially. Spend time with family. The market will still be here.”
Booby says, “[i]f you don’t have any crypto exposure, start with BTC/ETH and dollar-cost your way in. If you already have some crypto exposure, focus on quality projects to find where fundamentals have been way oversold to DCA in.”
For Booby, one of his favourite weekend hobbies is “finding new projects to understand what’s coming up next and to try them out.”
“ETH is now cheaper too”, he said.
Is current deep the bottom of the deep?
If you think we are at the bottom now, Booby does not think so: “I don’t think we are at the bottom yet coz conferences are still full, crypto parties are still extravagant, still seeing excesses amongst teams, macro environment is still weak. The layoffs have started but not widespread yet. Stay strong and manage your positions well.”
So is it time to sell your bitcoin and Ethereum? You decide. That’s the last step.