Crypto Policy in 2025: What Investors Should Expect

by Ndianabasi Tom

The recently published Crypto Policy Theses for 2025 by Messari paints a vivid picture of the evolving regulatory regime for cryptoassets in the United States, a consequential and key market in the global crypto space.

With the Trump Administration and a Republican-controlled Congress taking center stage, the crypto industry could experience a significant change in its regulatory and legislative environment.

However, the opportunities come with challenges.

Based on Messari’s projections for crypto regulation, 2025 will be the year when crypto policy gets shaped or takes the centre stage. Interestingly, a number of the expected developments below have started to play out.

Messari’s 2025 crypto policy outlook: 7 areas to watch out for

1. Lasting regulatory clarity to come from the U.S Congress, rather than the U.S SEC

While the appointment of new leadership in the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (U.S SEC) signals an attempt to reshape crypto regulation, Messari predicts that “lasting regulatory clarity” will emerge from the U.S Congress. “With majorities in both chambers, Republicans are motivated to fulfill campaign promises by advancing legislation that establishes clear and supportive guidelines for the digital asset ecosystem,” the firm wrote.

otably, the Republicans’ legislative agenda includes introducing a modified version of the FIT-21 bill, which incorporates elements from the Lummis-Gillibrand Responsible Financial Innovation Act. This framework is expected to establish clear guidelines for digital asset issuers and intermediaries, streamline registration processes, and define the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Such clarity could attract more institutional investors and integrate cryptocurrencies further into traditional finance. Moreover, the anticipated framework would be a major achievement for an industry that has long struggled under regulatory uncertainty.

2. Stablecoin legislation to be signed into law

Stablecoins made big strides in 2024 in terms of adoption and market capitalization, with several institutions like Ripple launching their respective stablecoins. The report emphasizes that 2025 is primed for stablecoin legislation. Drawing confidence from Chair McHenry’s Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act, Messari has predicted that legislators will establish a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, fostering competition and innovation in 2025 and beyond.

Per the report, bipartisan support makes the passage of this legislation highly likely, and its impact could extend beyond crypto. By encouraging the adoption of U.S dollar-backed stablecoins, the Trump Administration seeks to counter the influence of alternative financial systems like BRICS, positioning stablecoins as a strategic tool in global finance. “With bipartisan support in Congress and a Trump Administration eager to promote financial innovation, a comprehensive stablecoin bill is highly likely to be enacted,” part of the report said.

While the expected legislation would strengthen the dominance of centralized stablecoins, the outlook for decentralized stablecoins remains uncertain which puts them at a disadvantage, the report added. According to Messari, decentralized stablecoins would have to adapt to the new regulatory environment and show their capacity to demonstrate value in a regulated ecosystem if they must retain a significant market share in 2025.

In other words, the emergence of regulatory requirements favoring centralized stablecoins such as USDC and USDT could marginalize decentralized alternatives, stalling innovation and delaying the vision of a fully decentralized financial ecosystem.

Centralized stablecoins are risky in decentralized ecosystems—Egorov, Curve Finance Founder

3. Wholesale CBDCs development to continue but retail CBDCs highly likely

With Trump at the helm of affairs and republicans controlling Congress, Messari submits that the development of retail central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is off the table. According to the firm, the focus will shift to wholesale CBDCs, which could streamline cross-border payments and settlements while safeguarding privacy and security.

It added that legislation is also likely to prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing retail CBDCs without explicit Congressional approval. Although less visible to the average consumer, wholesale CBDCs could reduce transaction costs and spur private-sector innovation in payment technologies.

4. Self-custody to be promoted while privacy remains debated

The protection of self-custody rights is expected to gain legislative backing in 2025, reflecting the Trump Administration’s commitment to individuals’ ability to hold and control their own digital assets.

However, the debate over privacy-enhancing technologies remains contentious. “With a Republican majority in Congress and a Trump Administration committed to protecting individual liberties, the right to self-custody will likely be codified through legislation,” part of the report read.

While privacy tools like mixers are valued for legitimate transactions, their potential misuse in illicit activities raises national security concerns. Accordingly, Messari predicts that “the debate over privacy-enhancing technologies, like mixers, will persist” in 2025. Further, the firm predicts targeted legislation aimed at curbing misuse of mixers “while also seeking to preserve privacy for lawful transactions.” This would help strike a delicate balance between innovation, privacy, and security.

5. DeFi to remain unregulated, but not ignored

Despite its growing prominence, the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector is likely to remain unregulated in 2025 according to Messari.

Per the report, Congress is expected to commission a comprehensive study in 2025 to explore DeFi’s potential benefits and risks. This study will involve stakeholders from the crypto industry, academia, and regulators, laying the groundwork for future legislation. While this period of uncertainty allows DeFi to innovate, Messari says it also exposes the sector to risks such as scams and hacks. Therefore, claiming the findings of this study will be critical for shaping policies that balance oversight with fostering innovation.

6. Possible shift in Trump’s pro-crypto stance to protect USD

As part of its projections for 2025, Messari warns of a potential reversal in Trump’s pro-crypto stance to uphold national interest if crypto adoption threatens the U.S dollar’s dominance as the world’s reserve currency.

The report added: “A shift toward a hostile stance on crypto could occur if an economic crisis undermines the dollar’s position, particularly if capital flows into crypto or if the BRICS financial system gains significant traction.”

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7. 2025 is make or break for ambitious crypto reform

As stated in the report, the first year of the new administration will be crucial for enacting ambitious reforms. “If the most ambitious pro-crypto policies are to be enacted, they will likely need to occur within the first year of Trump’s presidency,” Messari wrote.

The firm went further to suggest that a shift in Congressional control during the 2026 midterms could stall progress, mirroring historical legislative challenges faced by prior administrations:

“By the 2026 midterms, Congress could shift back to Democratic control, and Trump’s political capital may wane as his presidency progresses. Similar to Joe Biden’s diminished leverage after the partial failure of Build Back Better, Trump could face comparable legislative challenges later in his term, making large-scale crypto reforms increasingly unlikely.”

Conclusion

Messari’s crypto policy thesis suggests that 2025 could be a transformative year for the crypto industry in terms of policies and regulations. With a Republican-led government poised to prioritize crypto innovation, the potential for groundbreaking legislative advancements is higher than ever. In other words, 2025 could be the year for shaping the U.S. crypto landscape. As a ripple effect, the expected developments could set a global precedent for how governments around the world engage with cryptoassets.

However, as Messari aptly concludes, “the crypto industry has good grounds to be optimistic” in 2025, but much remains to be proven.

Ndianabasi Tom A Petroleum Engineering degree holder, Ndianabasi’s interest since 2018 has been study

ing the ever-growing field of blockchain and cryptocurrency, keenly evaluating the innovation, exploration, and expansion of this field locally and globally. The founder of Nitadel a media platform, Ndianabasi has been a Writer at Crypto Asset Buyer (CAB) since 2021. When he is not drilling resources in the blockchain and cryptocurrency field, Ndianabasi is singing, reading, watching crime movies, or playing football.

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