With the 2024 United States presidential election scheduled for November, several occurrences and activities leading up to the event have significantly influenced the crypto market trend. This goes further to highlight the depth to which the intersection between global politics and the crypto market has grown.
To this end, crypto market analysts at QCP Capital, an “exempt payment services provider” based in Singapore, reported on Monday that U.S. presidential elections will keep influencing cryptoasset prices. The report further discussed the state of the crypto options market, projecting BTC to trade within the $90,000 to $110,000 range by this year’s end.
U.S. elections and the crypto market
“Election headlines will keep driving market volatility, especially for crypto,” QCP analysts wrote. This indicates that one way or the other, the 2024 presidential election will shape the future of digital assets in America and, perhaps, globally.
The firm cited BTC’s price rally above $68,000 after the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump to showcase how election-related incidents impact the crypto market. On July 13, the leading candidate for the 2024 U.S. presidential seat was attacked while campaigning in Pennsylvania.
Reacting to the development, BTC price and the broader cryptocurrency market recorded a significant uptick in value. Data shows that notable political memecoins such as the Trump-themed token MAGA rose to the tune of 50% in 2 days while the total crypto market capitalization gained over 10% the following week.
According to the report, Trump’s upcoming appearance at the Nashville Bitcoin conference on July 25 would likely cause another significant price impact in the crypto market. Speculatively, Trump may promise a strategic BTC reserve as U.S. President while speaking at the event.
As another example of the U.S. election’s impact on digital assets, QCP Capital analysts referred to BTC price drop on July 21 after President Joe Biden stepped down from the race, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Bitcoin dropped by roughly $1,000 on the back of the news before regaining momentum and trading above $66,000 on Wednesday.
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Crypto options market
According to the report, the recent events ahead of the November U.S. presidential elections have also caused increased volatility in the crypto options market. “Options market volatility has surged due to these uncertainties,” QCP analysts said. In particular, prices for out-of-the-money options increased significantly on Monday per the report.
While this development, coupled with Mt. Gox’s $9B repayment plan, indicates expectations for more downward price movements in the crypto market, QCP Capital remains bullish on BTC. The firm has predicted BTC to trade within the range of $90,000 and $110,000 by December 27, 2024. The basis for their upside expectation includes the anticipated Federal Reserve second rate cuts by year-end and a pro-crypto U.S. election result.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $64,000 while Ether (ETH) is changing hands at $3,100. The latest price declines in the crypto market, considered a “sell-the-news” event, occurred shortly after the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) listed about five Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for trading in the U.S. on July 23.
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Ndianabasi Tom A crypto journalist and content writer who has been talking about cryptocurrency and blockchain technology since 2018, Ndianabasi is a Writer at Crypto Asset Buyer (CAB).
